STILL HOLDING NEAR SUPPORT, BUT IT MAY BE WEAKENING

The market is most likely in a bear phase and there is going to be nothing but downward movement.  Even though the $125 mark on the DIA has held, there is more selling than buying.  So the little bounce I expected may not materialize.  

I have taken a bearish stance on some stocks.  ARO is one that I am taking a bearish tone.  In my personal account, I have created a calendar put spread.  What I am expecting is that the stock will drop over the next year since it is a retail stock.  I bought a Jan 2009 $25 put and sold a Feb 2008 $25 put.  The total cost to me was $3.00 per contract since I put in a limit order.  My intent is to recoup the $3 within the next 4 months and begin making a profit for the next 8 months.  I can best achieve this by buying back the Feb 2008 $25 put when the MACDH nears 0.25.  I would then wait a while and then move to the next month expiration and sell the March 2008 $25 when the MACDH nears -0.25.  It is even better to look for swing signals when the MACDH nears these values.  

That last paragraph may be totally confusing to someone who is not into technical analysis, but hopefully someone can figure it out.

So as for now, I am very bearish on the market and for the year, I am expecting it to be in the crapper.  That said, I hate trying to predict the market.

GOOD LUCK NOT TRADING.

JD