Thursday, September 27, 2007
BITCHING ABOUT BARAK
More reason to add weight to a plummeting plane - Barak Obama thinks he can save Social Security by eliminating the earnings cap on Social Security. Currently, the maximum any person pays into SS is $97,500 based upon their income and he wants to eliminate the cap completely. In essence, this is fleecing the high income earners since they are the ones who will be most affected. As seen in the op-ed by Investor's Business Daily "Social Security willl have an unfunded liability over the next 75 years of more than $27 TRILLION in 2003 dollars." This is just another HIDDEN TAX INCREASE. Why do I say it is hidden? It is not seen as an increase in our income tax rate, but is hidden into the taxes that are already paid, but capped.
Businesses will be hit hard as they already pay both the EMPLOYEE and EMPLOYER PAYROLL TAXES. If a business has to pay both, the business will have to eliminate employees to continue to make a profit. Unemployment goes up, entitlements increase and recession sets in. Butthead Barak also fails to recognize that eliminating this cap will increases taxes for "97,065 carpenters, 110,908 police officers, 254,992 nurses, 208,562 teachers and 237,000 dentists."
My opinion, PRIVATIZE SOCIAL SECURITY. So far the federal government has used the funds in SS to pay for Medicare costs in the form of IOUs. Well, those IOUs are going to be called in mid 2010s.
You want to save SS, Barak? Don't allow illegal aliens SS. Don't allow their family members who still live outside of the US to receive SS benefits. Teach people to "fish" rather than giving them their "fish for the day." Don't continue to tell them that the federal goverment has the obligation to provide for them.
I believe in capitalism and my wealth should not be taken by the federal government to be distributed to people who believe the government owes them something. That is communism. If the government takes away my money to distribute amongst them, why should I continue to work hard for the same reward of someone who sits on their butt and collects the $$$ that I put into SS. My reward for working 60 to 80 hour work weeks is a 6 digit income so get your f*%*&*%$ hands out of my pockets, Barak!!!!
LET'S GO INTERNATIONAL AND "DIVERSIFY"
overextended and not in a buy territory and I still have money sitting idle in cash. Since the overall market is in a rally, I need to be 100% in the stock market and 0% in cash. So I pared off some of my OMCL and used up my cash to buy NBG. Below is the reason why.In scouting for stocks that are breaking out, I cam across NBG which is just out of a cup and handle. (click on this to read about the chart pattern) The proper buy point is $12.89 thus making the maximum buy point $13.53.
Here are my purchases:
NBG BOUGHT 3900 @ $12.91 ($50,356.00)NBG BOUGHT 1000 @ $12.93 ($12,937.00)
NBG BOUGHT 1100 @ $12.9199 ($14,211.89)
NBG BOUGHT 100 @ $12.9199 ($1,298.99)
NBG BOUGHT 2800 @ $12.91 ($36,155.00)
Here is my OMCL transaction:
OMNICELL COM INC (OMCL) BOUGHT 700 @ $23.4253 ($16,397.73)
OMNICELL COM INC (OMCL) BOUGHT 1,000 @ $23.5829 ($23,582.93)
OMCL SOLD 700 @ $27.95 $19,565.00
OMCL SOLD 500 @ $27.9801 $13,982.83
OMCL SOLD 500 @ $28.0001 $13,992.83
Also, here is the graph of the portfolio that I am following. Again, the picture comes from the
Scottrade account that I am managing. Account balance as of 06/01/2007 was $20,000. Currently it sits as $44,331, a 122% increase. The only stocks being held in it now are JASO and MR.
GOOD LUCK TRADING.
JD
Saturday, September 22, 2007
FOREX AND EQUITY TRADING SYSTEM / STRATEGIES
System 1: 7/20/50 Cross Rules
BUY: when 7 day EMA crosses over 20 day EMA if both are above 50 day EMA
SELL: when 7 day EMA crosses below 20 day EMA if both are below 50 day EMA.
Goal is 5% profit
System 2: ADX(14) Crosses PDI/MDI
BUY: Buy when ADX(14) crosses MDI(14) and ADX<30
SELL: Sell when ADX(14) crosses PDI(14) and ADX<30
Goal is 20% profit or if 20% gain in 3 weeks, hold for at least 8 weeks
System 3: MACD Histo
BUY: MACD Histo crosses ABOVE zero and equity is ABOVE 30 day EMA.
SELL: MACD Histo crosses BELOW zero and equity is BELOW 30 day EMA.
Goal is only 5%
System 4: Cross PDI/MDI and 3 day WMA & 22 day EMA
BUY: Cross PDI/MDI and 3 day WMA > 22 day EMA
SELL: Cross mDI/pDI and 3 day WMA <>
Goal is 10%
System I haven't tested yet:
ADX + MACD HISTO (Trending)
GOAL - capture 40 to 100 pip moves in forex, or 5% in equities
Stop loss is latest low for forex and 10 day EMA for equities
ADX14 cross MDI/PDI and MACD HISTO >0/<0 = go long/go short
Best time frame is 4 hour or daily.
Some modify to ADX9.
Here is a different example of a trading system / strategy:
Buy when: Fx pair is ABOVE 30 day EMA and MACD Histo crosses above zero.
Sell when: Fx pair is BELOW 30 day EMA and MACD Histo crosses below zero.
(MACD Histo settings are 8,17,9)
Goal is 50 to 100 pips.
THANK YOU JASO!!!
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 100 SHARES OF JASO AT $40.27 ($4,034.00)
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JASO AT $40.27 ($8,061.00)
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 800 SHARES OF JASO AT $40.27 ($32,223.00)
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 500 SHARES OF JASO AT $40.27 ($20,142.00)
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 300 SHARES OF JASO AT $42.38 ($12,714.00)
9/21/2007 JASO BOUGHT 200 SHARES OF JASO AT $42.38 ($8,483.00)
Since I bought JASO, I am not considering buying CNH based upon my rules of limiting the number of stocks I can own. I have updated the Yahoo! toolbar on the right to show which stocks are in my portfolios.
GOOD LUCK TRADING.
JD
Info for me:
38631529 FM, 38623275 FM, 38627642 FM, 38628670 FW, 38630224 FW, 57692517, 24491787, 24491775, 24491790, fx 10060819, invs669671, D3575312001/7407
Friday, September 21, 2007
JASO IS A BUY, CNH ALSO
why not take a profit and move to something else.) Click on the chart to see what I am talking about and notice that the buy point is $41.09 leaving a maximum buy point of $43.14. Have the expectation of JASO to bounce back and forth between $36.25 and $41.00 for a while since it needs to work past some previous resistance. A move past $44 should be big.
I want to point out that CNH is also in a buy territory, but I am not going to buy into it due to my rules of having only 5 stocks based upon my rules for the number of stocks to own. (Read the post from September 14th to see my rules.) Just click on the chart to see another cup with handle.
Good luck trading.
JD
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
THANK YOU, FED!!!

Here is an update on one of my portfolios. Beginning June 1, 2007, the account had $20,000 in it. This is a retirement account and does not trade on margin. So the profit in this portfolio is dollar for dollar. Since 6/1/07, it has risen to $42,054 as seen by the graph. That is a 110% increase in almost four months. Of note, there have been no deposits into this account as it is a rollover IRA. As this portfolio grows, I will have it verified by an accountant.
As for now, BLUD is just past the buy zone, but it may bounce in and out of the area between $32 and $35.65. Remember, the maximum buy price is $35.61. Also remember, it takes weeks to make $$$.
All of the other stocks are over-extended and are not buy candidates.
Good luck trading.
JD
Friday, September 14, 2007
BLUD IS GETTING READY TO BREAK PAST 6 MONTHS RESISTANCE IN CUP WITH HANDLE

BLUD just broke out past a buy point of $33.92 on a cup with handle. Remember to buy within 5% of this so a maximum price to pay is $35.61. I am adding shares within this zone.
Overall, this past week has been productive in the portfolios I manage. I even went back into the August 24th blog to look at the graph I printed out to show progress since then. The high back on that date was $36,667 and if you look at this graph, the portfolio is up to $39,324. Which is another 7% rise in 3 weeks. The only two stocks in this portfolio are MR and WHQ.
Again, to see the stocks that I have in my portfolio, just look to the right and you will see them in the Yahoo! toolbar. Note, however, if they are in the portfolio, it doesn't mean that it is time to buy. Just look throughout the blog and you will see when I put out buy signals.
One topic I wish to discuss is how much to invest in stocks. Well, you can easily start out with any amount that you want. Just remember that with any trade there is a commission to trade. If you have only $200 and you trade once using a Scottrade account, you are down to $193 due to the $7 commission. So you are probably asking how much do I trade if I have more than that?
Here is how I break it down.
$0-$25,000 - one stock only
$25,000-$50,000 - two stocks
$50,000-$100,000 - three stocks
$100,000-$250,000 - four stocks
$250,000-$1 mil - five stocks
Well, as soon as I get above $1 million, I will reassess what I need to do.
Now why would I invest in only one stock up to $25,000? Many reasons:
1. I only have to follow one stock while I get used to learning how to trade.
2. I can make a lot more money on one stock that goes up 20% when I have $20k versus four stocks at $5K each that may not get me 20%.
3. I have less commisions trading one stock versus many.
Good luck trading.
JD
Monday, September 10, 2007
OMCL TO BE ADDED TO S&P 600 AND WHQ HITS BUY SIGNAL
WHQ became a buy today based upon one of my buying signals. It has traded sideways for a few months and is ripe for a breakout. Hopefully it will become a winner just like BCSI was for me. Expect a stronger move if the stock breaks out over $69.22. Click on the chart to enlarge it and see an upclose view. Watch SMSI closely.
Disclaimer: I strongly recommend that you consult with a licensed financial professional or psychotherapist before committing yourself to the insane world of investing. Any market data or commentary used on this page is for illustrative and educational purpose as well as self-petting. Although this blog may provide information relating to investment ideas, visual stimulation or opportunities to buy or sell securities, you should not construe anything on this page as legal, tax, investment, financial or any other type of advice. If you do, it's your own damn fault and suck up the responsibilty for your own actions. Nothing contained on this page constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, endorsement, encouragement or offer to buy or sell any security or other toys that give you enjoyment.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
AIRM LOOKS LIKE IT IS BLOSSOMING

Tuesday, September 04, 2007
MR breaks out!!!

Sunday, September 02, 2007
SETTING UP A HEDGE FUND
Maybe my friend, Paul can help out since his neighbor used to work for Merrill Lynch. There is also a website that will sponsor and individual to get the Series 65, but again it is a fear of venturing into the unknown.
Here is a clip from a website (http://www.moneyscience.org/tiki/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=108#1) that explains how to set up an incubator hedge fund.
Incubator Hedge Funds
There is an alternative approach for hedge fund managers who want to test the waters before spending $15k or more to set up a hedge fund. Setting up an incubator hedge fund allows a hedge fund manager to develop a track record which will assist in attracting investors later in time.
An “incubator” can be created by breaking down the hedge fund development process into two stages and isolating the first.
Stage One. The first stage sets up the hedge fund and management company, and creates the required operating documents and resolutions. Completion of the first stage allows the hedge fund to begin trading and developing an auditable performance record. The incubator fund, in nearly all cases, is seeded with the fund manager's money. By trading under this structure, the hedge fund manager develops a track record, which, once audited by an accountant, can be marketed legally to potential investors through the offering documents which are developed in the second stage.
Stage Two. In the second stage, the offering documents are developed and an audit of the fund is completed by an accountant. The offering documents, with the financial statement of the hedge fund, is circulated to prospective investors.
Starting out with an incubator method affords the opportunity for those with a skill for trading (often in their personal accounts) to break down the hedge fund development process into a cost manageable undertaking. One of the caveats of the incubator approach to launching a hedge fund is that the aspiring fund manager is not paid for trading his own money. The acceptance of third party money (and whether this is permitted depends on the state or country where hedge fund management is based), creates a fiduciary obligation and risk for which the hedge fund manager is not paid. Acceptance of third party money into an incubator fund, in the rare case when allowable, is not recommended, given the legal exposure it creates for the hedge fund manager.
The biggest issues one needs to deal with is getting a prime broker, a securities attorney, and and auditor.
As I read, here is the reason for becoming a hedge fund manager:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/24/business/24hedge.html?ei=5088&en=22f49c09d1ef88eb&ex=1335067200
It is nice to have aspirations so let's see what the future holds.
JD
EPS ANNOUNCEMENT TRADING PLAN
So I have tried a scenario and I am going to use code for myself. Why?? Well, what if I want to make it a proprietary system and open up a hedge fund to trade it this way? I don't want anyone else knowing how I do it, but I will at least give you the results and show my trading progress.
Here are my rules:
5 min chart. Last 15 mins price and volume.
Buy if up
Short if down
Here are some stocks that I have traded and the result:
MENT
Bought 8/23 @ $12.50
Sold 8/28 @ $14.0325
Profit = $1.5325/share
Percent gain/loss = 10.9%
GEF
Bought 8/29 @ $58.80
Sold 8/31 @ $57.85
Profit = ($0.95/share)
Percent gain/loss = (1.6%)
OVTI
Bought 8/30 @ $19.88
Sold 8/31 @ $20.7825
Profit = $0.9025/share
Percent gain/loss = 4.5%
Friday, August 31, 2007
MARKET IS IN A RALLY PER IBD

MR is high on my list. Just click on the chart to the left to enlarge it. MR recently ran up, touched the 50 day moving average line twice (blue line), and is poised to break out above its previous resistance at $36.05. If MR breaks out above $36.15 in high trading volume, it becomes a buy.
KMGB is a stock that recently had a run up and is correcting in a positive way. If you draw a trend line down the top of the recent down turn, you will see that the downtrend was broken a few days ago around $20.50. Since then it has risen in higher buying volume as noted by the rise in price and the trading volume picking up as seen at the bottom of the chart. I picked some shares up today at $23.48 since that broke a previous area of resistance a month ago.

As for my current holdings in my portfolio, BCSI continues to do well and I am hanging onto this one. I am still waiting for OMCL to breakout to the upside. ICE may be on the rebound.
PCLN triggered my 10% profit rule in a down trending market. What???? you ask. Well, in a downtrending market like the one we just popped out of, IBD recommends cutting your losses at 5% and taking your profits at 10%. Well my 10% target in PCLN was $82.30 and it go taken out today. Thanks. I'll take it.
What I am going to try and to is keep the stocks that I own in my portfolio in the Yahoo! stock list on the right of this page.
There is another subject I have to mention that is just driving me crazy. I believe that Americans are becoming the softest, most emotional and dumbest people in the world despite our "superpower" status. Young kids are more concerned about what Hollywood star ditched jail (Spears, Lohan, Richie) or attempted suicide (Owen Wilson) than looking at the world as a whole and seeing what is happening to the USofA as a country. Here is a perfect example of that stupidity. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww
Thank you Ms. Teen South Carolina. You have proved my point.
Good luck trading.
JD
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
MARKET STILL IN CORRECTION.
BCSI has given me more than a 50% gain in the past couple of weeks especially with the positive earnings announcement. I did take 50% of my original purchase off the table when I reached a 50% target. OMCL continues to make no movement, but I completed all of the buying that I was willing to do between $23.60 and $24 and that totalled $100K. I believe it is waiting for the overall market to follow through or crash and OMCL will follow suit. PCLN is nearing a 10% profit and I will take it if it gets triggered at $82.30. Remember, IBD recommends selling stocks at a 10% profit when the overall market is in a correction.

(For those of you who have a Scottrade account, I'll bet you can attest to this graph.)
I have also added a Yahoo! link on the right side of the column and changed the color of my blog to match. I hope you like the new change. The text is a lot easier to read.
Good luck trading.
JD
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
THANK YOU BCSI !!!!!!!!!!
Since the overall market is in a correction, it is hard to make any recommendations to buy; however, I am liking MR as a buy candidate. I have noticed that the market held its 200 day moving average which is a good sign. Let's just wait and see how the market holds out.
Good luck trading.
JD
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Hmmm. HAVE WE REACHED A BOTTOM?
BTW, BCSI reports it earnings Monday.
I just had to bump this blog back up top.
TRADING RULES
I have been successful with my approach to the stocks I want to look at to buy/sell. The way I came up with this system originally was to read "How to Make Money in Stocks" by Wm. O'Neil. I had used his book in the past, but recently deviated from the trading plan and definitely did not do better with my personal trading plan and have done much better sticking to the IBD plan. There are a lot of factors in selecting stocks to buy. I say that I am a chartist which means that I only buy a stock based upon what a chart shows me in relation to price and volume. However, I primarily base my decision to buy based upon a company's fundamentals such as earnings per share (EPS). Here is how I select the stocks based upon a stock's fundamentals:
1. Use the IBD newspaper and look at "Stocks on the Move" or "IBD Timesaver Table."
2. Smart Select Composite Rating must be greater than 98 or 99
3. EPS must be higher than 90
4. Relative Price Strength must be higher than 80
5. Industry Group Relative Strength must be A or B
6. Sales/Profit/ROE A or B
7. A/D must be A or B
8. Beta must be 1.4 or higher as noted in the Stock Checkup at www.investors.com
www.investors.com has already done all of the research for me when it comes to stocks with high earnings per share (EPS), if it's in a strong industry group, etc. I then am a "chartist" and I anlayze a chart as to when it is the best time to buy or sell.So here are the buy rules: (price and volume are key)
1. Breakout from a cup with handle or any other base as described in the "investor education" section of www.investors.com
2. Stock makes a new 6 month high and meets all the above criteriaLearning to identify the proper buy points (aka pivot points) are critical to profit. I try to talk about pivot points in this blog to help find them.
So here are the sell rules that need to be stictly adhered to:
1. Once your stock drops 8% below the proper buy point, sell it.
2. Once a stock gains 20% from the proper buy point, sell it. However, if the stock rose 20% within a 3 week span, hold it for at least 8 weeks.
That's it. That's my trading plan. Granted it means that I am in and out of a stock as it rises, but that can sometimes add up to more than just sitting in the stock. I just want to be out before any correction occurs and I lose all my profits.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
INDICES HAVE CUT RECENT LOWS. GOING TO SHORT THE MARKET
One stock that I found to short today on a 7-20-55 day EMA cross is AINV.
Good luck staying in cash, but get ready to jump back in when your stocks give buy signals.
JD
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
MARKET HAS BOUNCED AGAIN. I'M LOOKING FOR MORE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES
Today, I bought into a few stocks. STP near $42 and WFT near $54.20. Why?
STP has spit out a weird cup with handle. After the breakout, the stock came back down with the general market, but trading volume also declined. I am looking at the Stochastic and am noticing that the stock is OVERSOLD and it is ripe to head back up. Bought in today at $41.59 and again at $42.
On WFT, I am only looking for a 10% profit since the stock seems to be fluctuating and not making any significant moves in the past few months. Bought in at $54.20 and looking for a target near $59.20 since $59 has been a resistance point a couple of times in the past few months.
I am also continuing to accumulate shares in OMCL from $23.60 to $24.00. This should be a support area and hopefully the stock should rise again here soon.
Good luck trading.
JD
Thursday, August 02, 2007
On the flip side, many stock have jumped on the "short" list. Remember, shorting a stock is tough to do so make sure you are comfortable doing this type of trade. New additions to the short list include:
ABK, AHM, AIV, AVB, AXR, BFS, BIO, BONT, CAC, CAKE,CHKE,CPKI, ESE, FACE, FED, IGT, INSU, LEAP, LXK, MBI, MBWM, MKL, MTB, MWRK, PFB, PMI, PSA, PVTB, RAS, RCII, RWT, SHLM, UCBI, VTAL
In July, I made mention of some stocks that I thought were going to make a move.
ICE was cut at an 8% loss.
CTRP came within $0.56 of the 8% stop loss order, but today bounced more than 8% on huge trading volume. To me that is a signal to buy again.
On July 10th, CROX was mentioned and has been the great winner of the three. So far it is up 24% from the buy point and that is less than 3 weeks. REMEMBER - ONE OF IBD's RULES IS TO HOLD ON TO A STOCK FOR AT LEAST 8 WEEKS WHEN IT RISES MORE THAN 20% IN LESS THAN THREE WEEKS.
MBT was a perfect "short" set up and it worked out for an 18% win when the stock went down.
You can always go look at these charts for free at www.stockcharts.com
Good luck trading.
JD
BUY LIST:
AAPL, ACH, ARD, BAP, BHP, BIDU, BOOM, CAE, CAM, CLB, CMED, CRNT, DECK, DRYS, DSX, EDU, ELP, ESI, ESV, FLIR, FMCN, FSRV, FSTR, FTI, FTK, GRMN, GSF, GSOL, HAL, HURC, HURN, ICE, IEX, ISRG, KMGB, LAYN, MICC, NILE, NOV, NVDA, NVEC, NVT, OMCL, OYOG, PCLN, PCP, PCR, PCU, PDE, RDC, RIG, RIMM, RIO, SII, SQM, SRCL, TBSI, TNH, TWIN, VDSI, VIP, VMI, VSEA, VSEC, WBD, WFT, WOOF, WHQ
SHORT LIST:
ABK, AEPI, AHM, AIV, ALX, ARE, AVB, AXR, BIO, BONT, BSC, BXP, CAC, CAKE, CHKE, CPKI, CT, DSL, ESE, FACE, FED, GHL, IGT, INSU, ITMN, KB, LEAP, LPNT, LXK, MBI, MBWM, MKL, MSTR, MTB, MWRK, NVR, PJC, PFB, PMI, PSA, PVTB, RAS, RCII, RWT, SEPR, SHLD, SHLM, SLG, STU, UCBI, VNO, VTAL, WSC, WY

