Monday, March 22, 2010

GOAL = 3% MONTHLY RETURN USING OPTION SPREADS

SYMBOLS:

SPY
SH
SPXU
TMV

I’m talking about being thankful to Uncle Sam and the U.S. government for the bountiful opportunity they have given us to make huge loads of money in a relatively short amount of time.

I’m talking about shorting U.S. debt via 2 specific, but very risky vehicles:

  • Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT)
  • Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV)

Thank You Mr. President

Since the collapse of the yield curve late last year when people were panicked in the market such that they were willing to take NEGATIVE returns on their money via U.S. Treasuries to ensure some type of safety, things are starting to normalize now, and in fact swing the other way.


This has given us one of the biggest opportunities in the last 50 years to take advantage of a punch drunk bumbling and stumbling government spending itself into possible oblivion.

A little harsh you say?

Perhaps, and I’m not one to judge, but I am certain of one thing: As Warren Buffett recently stated, the bubble in U.S. Treasuries is one of the largest of all time, even bigger than the housing bubble that we just witnessed collapse.

In fact, Buffett highlighted the sale in late 2008 by Berkshire Hathaway of a Treasury bill for a negative yield.

Buffett wrote in Berkshire’s annual letter in February that when “the financial history of this decade is written…the Treasury-bond bubble of late 2008″ may rank up there with the housing bubble of the early to middle part of the decade.

Friday, March 05, 2010

ULTA - TRADE WAS PROFITABLE


This is a trade I am analyzing due to my winning the trade on it. click on the chart to the right to see the chart itself and where I got in and my exits.

I need to do a further post-trade analysis to see if this stocks moves to the upside or whether it falters and I made the right choice to get out at $21.35.

TSTC IN BUY AREA


The revamped trading plan has arrived. If you click on the chart to the right you will see what I have created.

When the candlesticks are green, there is a bias to the upside. When red, there is a bias to the downside. I want to ride the waves within the predominant trend. So when the trend is up, it makes the candles green and I want to catch a wave up after the stock has been oversold as noted by the stochastics being below 20.

Since I enjoy shorting stocks too, I want to look for candlesticks that are red and the stochastics shows that the stock has been overbought or above 80 as seen on the stochastic chart.

If you look at the chart I have attached, you can see that the candlesticks are green and that the pair has the stochastics near 20. Granted they are right above 20 so I am going to set some orders to be activated once a certain price is met.

I am looking for an entry at $17.58 and a possible second entry at $15.30. I hope the second level doesn't ever reach there because it would be a 13% loss on the first position.

My exits will be below at $13.80 and above near $24.00