A LOT OF CHANGES TODAY

HEAT advanced through my stop loss today and so it it's out of the portfolio.  Added 3 new stocks in the past couple of days:  WBD, GFA, and added more ATPG.  

Charts to follow.

BUYING POINT FOR WBD

BEST TIME TO ADD TO APWR POSITION, UPDATED 11.10.10

APWR is in a re-buy area.  Basically this is a dollar cost average buy.  Bought more shares today at $7.30. 

11.10.10  Need to insure this trade as there is a profit. 

BUYING ATPG TODAY, UPDATED 11.12.10

Click on this picture to enlarge it. 

This trade has continued to trade higher, but I see it is time to "insure" the trade.

GLAD THIS MARKET IS IN A CONFIRMED UPTREND.

So the stocks are moving into an oversold area and the SPY continues to rise.  (Is this a pump by the US Treasury to keep the market up prior to elections then dump the market once the Repubs take over? The fall could then  be blamed on the Repubs.  That's what volume is telling me as trading volume is dropping during this rise.  Or, is this a market of no sellers because the big boys such as Goldman Sachs are holding onto their shares only to buy more once the Repubs are elected?  Damn good questions)  

I am noting that it is time to consider buying back your "insurance" plans that you should have sold a while ago.  In fact, I bought back my "insurance" plan on APWR today.  Sold it at $1.20 per share and bought back at $0.85 per share.  

I am also stalking JCG and HEAT as opportunities to buy back the "insurance."  I have set buy limit orders to close out my insurance plan.

MARKET STILL EDGY BUT I AM EXPECTING A SMALL PULLBACK

The market continues to be in an uptrend and it seems as if it will not retrace at all.  I just have to keep watching the chart and not listen to my emotions.  My emotions say go short, but I need to watch the chart and watch it go up.  I am watching the trading volume dropping off when the SPY rises which denotes a potential retracement soon.  

I have attached another pic again of the portfolio.  Notice that GIII was removed from the portfolio after a nice 30% return.  SPXU was added so look at the pic for the explanation.  (click on the pic to enlarge it)  I have "insured" all of my positions based upon my rules to do so.  This "insurance" will allow me to protect some of my profits.  

Market is still overbought. Dow barely holding 11,000.

The portfolio is still doing well, but TQNT took a hit today by going down 7%.  It still leaves a 31% profit.  It may be time to "insure" this one or to just take profits and run.  

HEAT was on fire today rising 12% in huge trading volume.  There was no news that made this stock move, but I won't complain.  Search this blog to go see my original entry relating to HEAT to see why I bought it and it may give you an idea for a future trade.  

Based upon the market being in overbought territory, I would be expecting a pull-back in the indices.  Profit taking may be in order or "insuring" your profits would be a better bet for a long-term trader.

NO CHANGES TO REPORT.

Although the market is way overbought, today it rose in good trading volume.  The volume has not been successful in over-riding the recent down volume in sideways movement.  A possible false move.

The account has not really suffered any damage in the past few days. 

AMAZING RESULTS SO FAR ON APWR AND GIII. ENTERED HEAT AT $6.10

I see SXCI as a buying opportunity.  I plan on setting a buy limit at $36.41.  Wanting the stock to rise to $40.41, I'll set my target there.    In order to prevent losing a lot of money, set the stop loss at $34.28. 

This past month has treated the account very well as evident by the pic above. (click on the picture to enlarge it). 

CHECK OUT APWR, HEAT IS IN A BUY AREA AGAIN

So I may have been wrong on the direction of the market a few days ago, but APWR way more than made up for it today.  Also a strong showing in GIII.  This makes all my positions to be in positive territory.  

I am also scanning stocks and if you haven't gotten in on HEAT, this is a perfect opportunity to do so. 

WRONG ABOUT THE MARKET GOING LOWER

Crap.  My level of resistance on the S&P500 didn't hold and we are now in a market where I am seeing stocks making new highs left and right.  This leads me to believe that we are in a market that is going to move higher.  Take for example TQNT which I bought back in may at $6.58 and more at $7.96, is at a 52 week high around $9.00 today.  SLV which is an ETF that tracks the price of silver is at an ALL-TIME HIGH!!!!.  GLD which is the gold ETF continues to push it's all-time high too.  APWR which was bought into a few days ago is slowly making some movement up.  I posted a buy point for GIVN on 7/21/2010 is finally making the move I wanted it to do.  Here is a screen shot of some current holdings. (Click on the pic to enlarge it.)

The one bad side to this whole story was I bought SPXU which is the three times the inverse of the S&P 500.  I expected the market to go down as it met resistance, but it burst through it and the S&P is now making monthly highs.  Got out of that trade early this morning. 

This is why I hate to be a fundamental trader and not a technical trader.  As a technical trader, I need to wait for the pullback and buy into this strength now.  As a fundamental trader, I would be shocked as the fundamentals of the US suck with high unemployment, low GDP, and massive debt. 

NEW SHORT-TERM TRADING TECHNIQUE

I am working on a new system that trades both long and short positions that will only be held for a week or two.  The goal is to get a 10% return on each trade while risking about 8%.  This is arbitrary so don't stick hard and fast to these numbers.

Here is the first trade on this system.  SHORT - DFS.  Click on the chart to see the explanation.

Click on the second chart to see the explanation of this losing trade.

So this one triggered my stop loss as the stock rose to new highs and knocked me out for a 4.9% loss.  That is why stop loss orders are absolutely necessary or do the technique I teach by "buying" insurance.

APWR IS IN A BUYING AREA

I was scanning my charts and noticed this one being set up for a nice run. Part of the problem is that the overall market is in an oversold area and meeting resistance. This would potentially knock this stock back down since stocks follow the overall market 65% of the time. But since this is a long-term trade, I want to take this as an opportunity to buy it. I will then place my insurance policy and have someone else pay for it. 

So the trade was entered at a price of $6.30.  The intent is to let this trade move up to the $7.30 area and begin to enter the "insurance phase."  

SPY HITTING RESISTANCE

Plan on going short near $113 on the SPY. Click on this chart to see why.

HEAT TRADE UPDATED

Scroll down to look at what I did with HEAT on 8/5/10.

HEAT trade updated again on 8/17/10.

GIVN IS A POTENTIAL BUY

I am looking at GIVN again for a long-term trade. I see it being in a buying territory around $16.00. Remember to place a stop loss order and do so below $14.00. Click on this chart to see what I am talking about.

HEAT TRADE: OPENED 7.7.2010 @ $5.50

I saw a great trading opportunity on a stock that I have been following for a long period of time. HEAT has entered a buying zone for me based upon the chart seen here. (click on the chart to see it and read the text associated with it.) I bought 2000 shares at $5.50 and am expecting a higher move. That will also depend upon the overall market too. If the S&P 500 goes down, this will most like follow suit.



Here is now a daily chart. Notice how the weekly chart above and the daily chart to the right here have the stochastic indicator in the oversold (below the 20 line) area. When both are in the same area, that should mean there is a potential for this to move back upwards soon.



UPDATE: 7.20.2010 On a daily chart, HEAT has been behaving as it should be which means upward. This upward movement was stoked by the weekly chart and the daily chart both being in the oversold territory on stochastics.

However, when you look at the weekly chart, you can see that trading volume is slowing down while price trickles higher. What a trader wants to see is volume picking up with volume climbing higher.

Plan on staying in on this trade and as of today, it is still 13% in profit.


UPDATE: 8/5/2010
So far HEAT has garnered a 20% gain for me and I see a short-term top in place so I am going to sell an August $5 covered call at $1.65.


8/17/2010
Here is the chart and why I saw the short-term top on the stock. As noted above, I sold an in-the-money August $5.00 call for $1.65. Today, I bought the contract back to close the position for $0.90. That is equivalent to $0.75 per share. This will knock my cost basis down to $4.75.

SPXU PROFITABLE TRADE

So here is a trade that followed the trading plan that I have created. I have traded the symbol SPXU that is three times the inverse of the S&P 500. That means that when the S&P 500 moves 1%, the SPXU moves 3% in the opposite direction.

I was looking at the charts on the S&P 500 and expected it to make a downturn. So, if the S&P 500 was going to go down, the SPXU was going to go up three fold. (click on the chart to see the S&P 500 daily chart).


The chart of the SPXU is next. Since the market was probably going to go down, the SPXU was going to go up three-fold. On June 22, 2010, I entered a trade at $31.65 by buying SPXU. The amazing part is that nine trading days later, the trade was exited at $38.77 for a 24.5% profit. I'll take that any day.

This is just one of the three different ways that a stock or ETF can be traded. In a second way, you can use options to keep a trade for a longer period of time, or you can always use options as insurance in the third way of trading. Don't be afraid of the word options. Options are just a way of insuring major losses in stock trading. It can be a learned behavior.

HSA - IRA

0803-2411 sc*hwa*b

GOAL = 3% MONTHLY RETURN USING OPTION SPREADS

SYMBOLS:

SPY
SH
SPXU
TMV

I’m talking about being thankful to Uncle Sam and the U.S. government for the bountiful opportunity they have given us to make huge loads of money in a relatively short amount of time.

I’m talking about shorting U.S. debt via 2 specific, but very risky vehicles:

• Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT)
• Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV)

Thank You Mr. President

Since the collapse of the yield curve late last year when people were panicked in the market such that they were willing to take NEGATIVE returns on their money via U.S. Treasuries to ensure some type of safety, things are starting to normalize now, and in fact swing the other way.

This has given us one of the biggest opportunities in the last 50 years to take advantage of a punch drunk bumbling and stumbling government spending itself into possible oblivion.

A little harsh you say?

Perhaps, and I’m not one to judge, but I am certain of one thing: As Warren Buffett recently stated, the bubble in U.S. Treasuries is one of the largest of all time, even bigger than the housing bubble that we just witnessed collapse.

In fact, Buffett highlighted the sale in late 2008 by Berkshire Hathaway of a Treasury bill for a negative yield.

Buffett wrote in Berkshire’s annual letter in February that when “the financial history of this decade is written…the Treasury-bond bubble of late 2008″ may rank up there with the housing bubble of the early to middle part of the decade.

ULTA - TRADE WAS PROFITABLE

This is a trade I am analyzing due to my winning the trade on it. click on the chart to the right to see the chart itself and where I got in and my exits.

I need to do a further post-trade analysis to see if this stocks moves to the upside or whether it falters and I made the right choice to get out at $21.35.

TSTC IN BUY AREA

The revamped trading plan has arrived. If you click on the chart to the right you will see what I have created.

When the candlesticks are green, there is a bias to the upside. When red, there is a bias to the downside. I want to ride the waves within the predominant trend. So when the trend is up, it makes the candles green and I want to catch a wave up after the stock has been oversold as noted by the stochastics being below 20.

Since I enjoy shorting stocks too, I want to look for candlesticks that are red and the stochastics shows that the stock has been overbought or above 80 as seen on the stochastic chart.

If you look at the chart I have attached, you can see that the candlesticks are green and that the pair has the stochastics near 20. Granted they are right above 20 so I am going to set some orders to be activated once a certain price is met.

I am looking for an entry at $17.58 and a possible second entry at $15.30. I hope the second level doesn't ever reach there because it would be a 13% loss on the first position.

My exits will be below at $13.80 and above near $24.00

LEARNING LESSON: FOREX

Here is a trade I was considering: It was on the EURUSD pair and I was noticing that the pair was in the OS territory based upon the slow stochastics on a daily chart. The slowK was also above the slowD and so I was expecting a bounce to the upside. I moved down to a 15 min chart and made my move. My analysis was totally wrong for a number of reasons: 1. The pair is below the 55 EMA on the daily chart and the 15 min chart as well as the 4 hour chart. 2. The trend line break was a head fake. 3. There was an error in going from the daily chart down to the 15 min chart. If I looked at the 4 hour chart, you could clearly see the slowK was moving downward and was below the slowD.

GPRE IN BUYING TERRITORY: SUCCESSFUL TRADE

If you click on the chart to the right, you will notice a green vertical line. This is a buy line based upon my trading plan. I want to enter as near to $13.12 as possible. The chart also has the targets and stop loss also listed on them.

So here is the chart of the final trade. I originally entered at $12.92 based upon the first entry signal which is the first green vertical line. There is a second entry that could have been also performed but I did not have the funds available to do so. Today, the exit signal was triggered at $14.05. That gives a $1.13 profit or 8.75% in 13 days. I will take these anytime.

02 02 2010 BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN LULU: LOSING TRADE. LOST 10% BASED UPON STOP LOSS BEING TRIGGERED

Here is a stock that is in a buying opportunity. Note the green vertical dashed line denoting such a buying opportunity.

Entry should be as near to $28.74 as possible by placing an order called a buy limit.

Setting a stop loss is the next priority. Set it at $26.04.

Setting targets is the next step. Schedule 3 targets to reach.

T1 = $30.31
T2 = $32.80
T3 = $34.15

Move you stop loss up each time a target is reached.

Well, I never got to move my stop loss up because I never made a profit off of this one. Within 4 days it came down and met my stop loss.

BWY ENTERED AT $17.54 SETTING TARGETS FOR PROFIT AND A STOP LOSS FOR PROTECTION

BWY gave me a nice 10% return a couple of weeks ago. I am now watching it as it has tracked back down into the $17.00. It is also in an "oversold" area on the stochastic as seen on this chart. I suspect a move up into the $18.50 region and possibly into the $20 is a possibility.

Click on the chart to look for the reasons why I am going to be buying.

UPDATE: 2.2.2010

So the stock jumped nearly 5% today. The trade is so far profitable as of today so I have set targets for profit. Click on the chart to the right to see the explanation.

OUTLOOK FOR S&P 500 ON WEEKLY CHART

HERE IS A PICTURE OF THE SPY ON A WEEKLY CHART. CLICK ON THE PICTURE TO ENLARGE IT AND READ THE TEXT ON THE PICTURE.

I SEE THE SPY IN "NO-MAN'S LAND" BETWEEN THE 50 AND 200 DEMA ON A DAILY CHART. SO THIS MEANS THAT ANY POSITION SHOULD BE TO THE DOWNSIDE UNTIL IT NEARS THE 200 DEMA.

MY PLAN: SHORT THE MARKET. ADD MORE SHORT POSITIONS WHEN THE 50 DEMA IS MET ABOVE THE CURRENT PRICE.

PLAN ON TARGETING THE 200 DEMA ON THE DOWNSIDE FOR PROFIT. STOP LOSS IS GOING TO BE $0.25 ABOVE THE MOST RECENT HIGHS.

BUYING HMIN TODAY 01 14 2010. STOP LOSS OUT 01.21.2010.

I am buying HMIN today and have done so with a limit order at $36.15. I am hoping that this stock will rise off the 55 day EMA (yellow line) after popping higher a few days ago with higher trading volume. It also comes from my watch list as being within a buy area.

I also noted the stock is accumulating based upon the A/D line rising for the past few months.

I am going to scale into this trade so I bought 1/3 of my position to at $36.15.

UPDATE: 01.21.2010

Today the overall general market took a huge digger and this stock stopped me out at my 10% stop loss rule. Since I used 15% of my account, I lost 1.5% of my total account on this trade. There is the rule. Limit losses and let winners run.

POSITIONS AND TRADES

This is the chart for DRYS. The stock is bouncing around its 55 and 200 day EMA's. Click on the chart to look at the text on the chart to see the plan.


BWY is sitting right above its 55 day EMA. This may act as support, but I see stronger support at the junction of the 200 day EMA and the trend line drawn on the chart.

The other factor that is contributing to the pair being a strong stock is that there was a huge burst of trading volume in December and since then trading volume and price have both drifted lower. If the overall stock market is going to falter, then I expect a retracement back to the 200 day EMA where a strong buy point is in play as it is near the trend line too.


AIXG is nearing a support although it is below its 55 day EMA. If this stock does not use $31.82 as support and closes below this level, it is a bad sign and has the potential for this stock to take a digger. All of the trading volume has really been around the $32 level.

PLAN FOR AIXG: If the stock bounces off $31.82, buy it. If the stock closes below $31.82, do nothing.