TRADE #5 OF STAGE 2: SHORT THE USDJPY

I am watching a possible double top on the USDJPY based upon the chart attached.

Here is my logic and reasoning.

1. When looking at the USDX, it appears as if it is going to meet an area of a little resistance around $78 as noted in the blog from 12.18.2009

2. The four hour chart shows a resistance line and I expect a short term double top due to reason #1.

I placed my entry near the resistance line at 90.59 and a stop loss above the resistance line at 91.02. This price is also a few pips above the most recent high which should be respected in a double top.

My T1 is sitting at the 38.2% Fib retracement from 12.9.2009 until the most recent high. My T2 is at the 61.8% retracement of the same move.

Again, I have come to the resolution that the two time frame analysis is what is going to work best. I am going to avoid noting the daily chart in the analysis. Thus, my HTF is the 4 hour chart and my entry was the 15 min chart.

INFO FOR ME

3218-1331 HSA
17305265 TS


http://www.forexcalc.com/ forex position calculator

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financialcareers/06/FinancialAnalyst.asp#12893350414672&close

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionaleducation/10/market-technicians-association.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financialcareers/09/chartered-market-technician-cmt.asp

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/08/07/8382584/index.htm

http://richard-wilson.blogspot.com/2008/09/how-to-start-hedge-fund-launch-tips.html

http://www.hedgefundmarketing.org/starting-a-hedge-fund/

http://www.hedgefundlawblog.com/recommended-hedge-fund-articles-for-start-up-hedge-fund-managers.html

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=207753

PEGA is showing a buying opportunity. VNR is at 52 week highs

Looking into the charts, I see PEGA as a potential buy due to the increasing

volume and breakout from a triangle on a daily chart. Click on this chart to enlarge it. There was a bottom in October 2008 and PEGA has been in an uptrend ever since. Is this a possible return to the uptrend? Let's move closer into the daily chart and see what it looks like.

I like the fact that the stock is still above its 200 day moving average which is the wavy dark blue line. I don't like the fact that the 55 day moving average is sloping down. The fact that the stock is back above its 55 day moving average makes me feel better, however. The triangle that you see on the chart with the aqua-colored trendlines is appropriate so I am going to set my buying opportunities near $31.60. Stop loss $28.98. T1 = $35.21. T2 = $37.20 T3 = $39.76

I also looked at VNR. This stock has performed very well. When panning back on its chart, one can see that this stock is at a 52 week high. Most stocks that are above this level continue to move above this level so entry near hear is great.

ARTICLE ON SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

TraderPlanet Today

POTENTIAL SHORT ON NZD/JPY

Since the beginning of 2009, the NZD/JPY has seen a steady uptrend having begun near 44.00. It topped out around 69.50 toward the end of October. Prices have since dropped rather aggressively hitting a low of about 60.00 near the end of November (breaking through the 2009 bull trend line the process). Over the past couple weeks, price have rebounded and are currently testing near-term resistance near 65.00.

We still may have a solid shorter-term selling opportunity in the form of a double-top bearish Gartley pattern if current 65.00 resistance fails and prices move up to around 67.0 (click on chart to enlarge it). Assuming this pattern completes and no warning signs (gaps and/or long bars prior to entry) are present, we may see at least a temporary dip down to initial fib support of the projected CD leg near 65.00 (38.2% of projected CD leg) followed by 64.00 (61.8% of CD). The key will be for price to remain above point C (62.00) before reaching the projected entry of 66.80; otherwise, this specific double-top Gartley setup is no longer valid.

Potential Strategy : Sell if prices rally to 66.80 risking 67.84 targeting 65.22 (T1), 64.09 (T2).

POTENTIAL BUY IN EUR/GBP

Looking to buy the EUR/GBP if it falls to 0.8930.



Here is the chart. I am going to set one contract in at a buy limit order and then wait to see what happens. If I get a positive response, I will look to enter with my other contracts.

fx360

Going to set a buy for CTCM despite the fact that I think the market is going to falter

I am looking at charts and I noticed this one. This stock has been performing very well and as of recent there has been dimunition in the trading volume.

In the past few days, it has put in a pivot and broken this downtrend line. I have labeled the chart to show what I am talking about. My stop loss will be $0.12 below the most recent low which is $13.54. My buy limit order is going to be set at $14.92. T1 is $17.62 and T2 is 18.58. T3 will be $21.66. Let's see how this one pans out.

SPY STILL MEETING RESISTANCE

It looks like a lot of sideways movement for the SPY for a while. It is bouncing in between a rectangle bordered by $108 on the low side and $112 on the high side. Well, consolidation is good after this type of run. I day traded the SPXU which is the 3 times inverse SPY. Not much of a gain today, but commissions may wipe out my profits unless I reach the threshold with Tradestation's requirements.

I am adding my current trades to this blog to show what I did today. Click on the image to enlarge. I rolled a lot of covered calls today including those in GLD, HMSY and SLV. For SLV, I set out to sell some covered calls when the ETF reaches near $19.17. Here it will meet resistance from a previous high back in July, 2008. Click on the chart to the right to see what I am seeing.





HMSY has been behaving very nicely and there is a convergence of two trendlines at $43. I am watching this area fo an area of convergence and possible continuation of the uptrend. The blue line seen on the chart is a trendline from a low produced back in March, 2009.








I am also including my open positions so that I can keep track of them and plan for the future.